Sitting at the poker table with the New England Patriots, Tom Brady is representing a monster hand. Two face cards, at least. For the better part of two years, the greatest quarterback of all time.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the New England Patriots are Super Bowl champions.
To die-hard Patriots fans, that has become a common phrase when talking about the National Football League (NFL). To Patriots fans, that sentence is like a fresh sorbet; a palate cleanser to welcome the next season. To others, mostly those who live outside of New England, it makes our blood boil.
Those simple eight words have been a constant in the NFL over the past decade. Some might call the Patriots serial-winners. Others, like myself, call them tyrants. But not all Pats fans are greedy, championship-hungry fiends. In fact, some of them are quite likable.
Some are doctors, lawyers, and even college professors. I know one such fan: Paul Debole, an associate professor of political science at Lasell College in Newton, Massachusetts. Debole monitors the Northeast casino industry in great detail, so after the Baltimore Ravens handed the Pats their first loss of the season, 37-20, I knew exactly who to call.
Vague thoughts from a Patriots fan
If you’ve been following this weekly “On The Record” column, I’ve talked football with a few gambling experts. Both the New Orleans Saints (7-1) and the Buffalo Bills (6-2) have winning records, and if they continue to win, they have each positioned themselves for an appearance in the playoffs. So, since we are hitting the halfway point of the 2019 NFL Season, I suppose there is no better time to talk about the defending Super Bowl champs, the New England Patriots (8-1).
Let’s dive right in Paul. The Sunday night game, Ravens 37 – Patriots 20. What did you think?
It was one of those cases where — there were some silly penalties. And it was one of those cases where the Patriots weren’t playing as well as they should have, and it was evident by Tom Brady’s frustration. But they did some things well. Not to sound too much like coach [Bill] Belichick, but there are things you can do better, and he’s going to use this, like any smart coach would, as a learning experience.
What did you think of Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson?
I enjoyed watching him. He played well. He’s still young, and I think the future looks good for him too.
This has the makings of a classic Bill Belichick loss, does it not?
Oh absolutely. He is going to pull a complete 180. Yeah, they had a setback, yeah they didn’t play as well as they should, but you’re going to take lemons and make lemonade. He’s going to use this as a teaching tool. They are going to look at their weaknesses, and Belichick is going to fix it.
He only cares about winning the last game of the season, right?
That’s exactly it!
As a Patriots fan, how do you keep the regular season exciting since the stigma is they win all the time?
Well, every game is different. And in the overall scheme of things, if they come away with a 14-2 record, most of the other teams in the league would kill for that record. It’s all about keeping it in perspective.
How are you going to watch the game in two weeks when the Pats take on the Philadelphia Eagles?
Well, I am not your typical Patriots fan. I like to sit back with buffalo tenders and pizza. I like to watch closely how [Tom] Brady plays and Belichick’s reactions from the sidelines. It’s kind of like a micro-study in politics and government.
Super Bowl or bust, am I right?
Pretty much. The bar for success is quite high.
The New England casino market
Again, stop me if you’ve heard this one: the gambling market is becoming more and more saturated.
Last week, I stepped away from NFL sports betting and talked about other gambling issues in the Northeast, specifically one in New York. Continuing this small trend, Debole’s primary focus is on the casino industry. As a professor who finds the realm of gambling quite fascinating, Debole spends a modest eight to 10 hours a month analyzing casino data and monitors gambling issues in his home state of Massachusettsas well as New England casinos.
“The first issue is the question of market saturation,” Debole said. “There are two tribal casinos in Connecticut. We have Twin Rivers doing pretty well in Rhode Island and the new facility over in Tiverton [RI]. That coupled with Plainridge Park, which the numbers came in far below expectation, MGM Springfield and Encore Boston Harbor, there are several properties around the state.”
By Deboles’ calculations, factoring in the use of 1,250 slot machines — the max amount allowed by law in MA — Plainridge Park is collecting $307 per machine per day. Which, according to Debole, is the industry sweet spot. The casino is located roughly 38 miles south of Boston and is “actually doing pretty darn well,” Debole says.
“If you switch to MGM Springfield, they have been sub $200 for the last four months,” he said. “I went there once to see what it was all about, and I don’t think they could decide if they wanted it to be a food court or a gaming venue.”
Market saturation is no big secret. Hell, it’s a relevant question in other parts of the country as more states look for alternative sources of revenue. Regulators in New York are anxiously waiting for three more casino licenses to be issued. This would undoubtedly add another level of saturation to gaming markets in up-state NY and western MA.
But this idea on what a gaming facility is supposed to be has been a notable trend seen all over the US. Properties are searching for more ways to get customers in the door and must adapt to a changing consumer base. This shift can be seen at casino properties in New Orleans all the way up to Chicago, where plans for a downtown casino are being developed.
An industry adapting to change
As far as Encore Boston Harbor, which Debole said was a pain in the neck to get to, he noticed a slot machine feature that is becoming more common across all manufactured goods.
“Every slot machine I sat at had a USB port,” Debole said. “That is specifically targeted toward Millenials — so they can sit there and charge their phone while they were playing.”
It’s small changes like a USB port or legal retail and mobile sports betting that will almost certainly keep the industry afloat. But as our consumer tastes change and our technology advances, the casino industry as a whole will have to keep up. But all of this is, as we know, is at the mercy of the state government.
“The industry-wide trend is, facilities are moving away from gaming venues to resort venues where gaming is an amenity,” Debole said. “People are looking for more bang for their resort buck. And if you have a first-class resort with gaming as one of the amenities, I think it would do really really well.”
I guess you could say that the same formula keeps people coming back to watch the Patriots — a first-class organization with winning as an amenity that happens to do really, really well.
Just two teams remain undefeated heading into Week 7 of the 2019 NFL season.
The New England Patriots are heavy favorites to go to 7-0 this week as they face the 1-4 New York Jets duringMonday Night Football. The San Francisco 49ers are also big favorites to go to 6-0 facing the 1-5 Washington Redskins on Sunday.
The 49ers will undoubtedly face a tougher test in the currently 4-2 Carolina Panthers coming up in Week 8. However, the Patriots won’t face a team with a winning record until they match up with the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9.
Of course, the 1972 Miami Dolphins remain the only team in NFL history to run the table, going undefeated in the regular season and going on the win the Super Bowl.
The NFL’s two undefeated teams
Back then, they only played 14 regular-season games, but the Dolphins won them all. Legendary coach Don Shula helped lead the team to an additional two postseason wins before the Dolphins beat the Washington Redskins to win Super Bowl VII.
The 2007 New England Patriots also finished the regular season with an unblemished record, becoming the first team to go undefeated since the NFL schedule was expanded to 16 games in 1978.
The Patriots won two playoff games before losing in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.
While NFL regular-season perfection is nearly unattainable, these two teams proved it’s not impossible. And before you start betting on the Patriots and 49ers to post their first loss of the season, it’s important to remember several teams have come close to running the regular-season table before.
Here’s a look at the five hottest regular-season starts in the NFL over the past 20 years, outside of the two teams that finished undefeated.
2005 Indianapolis Colts
Legendary QB Peyton Manning and the Colts began the season 13-0. Then the San Diego Chargers rolled into the RCA Dome and handed the team a 26-17 loss.
The Colts ended the game’s third quarter by taking a 17-16 lead on Manning to Dallas Clark one-yard TD pass. However, the Chargers took the lead back on a field goal in the fourth. The Chargers finished the scoring with just over two minutes left when Michael Turner scored an 83-yard rushing TD.
Indianapolis set a record by winning 12 games throughout the year in which they never trailed.
The Colts went 1-1 in their last two regular-season games to finish the season 14-2. However, this Colts team lost in the Divisional Playoffs to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh went on to win Super Bowl XL.
2011 Green Bay Packers
Coming off a Super Bowl XLV win the previous season, the 2011 Green Bay Packers went 13-0 to start the next year. Then they met the 5-8 Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in mid-December.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was outdueled by an unheralded Kyle Orton and a Kansas City rushing attack that combined to own the time of possession. The Chiefs totaled 139 yards on the ground in a 19-14 win.
The vaunted Green Bay offense scored 40 or more points six times throughout the season. Plus, 30 or more points 11 times. However, they were held in check by Kansas City in this game. The losing continued when the Packers dropped a divisional playoff game against the New York Giants. The Giants went on to win Super Bowl XLVI.
2009 New Orleans Saints
The 2009 New Orleans Saints won 13 in a row to start the season. The Dallas Cowboys ended the Saints’ unbeaten streak in a Saturday game on Dec. 19 with a 24-17 win.
Saints QB Drew Brees went 29 for 45 for 298 yards, one touchdown pass, and an interception. However, Dallas pivot Tony Romo had the slightly better game, going 22 for 34 for 312 yards and a TD. Dallas led 24-3 when running back Marion Barber scored in the third quarter. The Saints came close, scoring two TDs in the fourth, but the comeback fell short.
The Saints didn’t win another regular-season game, finishing 13-3. However, they rolled through the NFC playoffs and won Super Bowl XLIV 31–17 over the Colts. Incidentally, the 2009 New Orleans Saints are the only team on this list to win the Super Bowl after their hot start to the season.
2009 Indianapolis Colts
The Colts started the 2009 season 14-0. By the time of the team’s Week 16 matchup with the New York Jets, they had clinched the AFC’s #1 playoff seed and decided to rest a bunch of starters.
Legendary Colts QB Peyton Manning started, but backup Curtis Painter finished the game with the Jets winning 29-15. The Colts also lost to the Buffalo Bills 30-7 to close out the regular season. Although they went on to appear in Super Bowl XLIV, they lost to the New Orleans Saints 31-17.
2015 Carolina Panthers
New England Patriots Table Lamp
The 2015 Carolina Panthers started the season 14-0 behind the stellar play of star QB and eventual NFL MVP Cam Newton.
The team took its first and only loss of the regular season against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16, two days after Christmas. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan went 23 for 30 for 306 yards and a touchdown. Ryan clearly outplayed Newton, who scored a rushing TD but threw for only 142 yards.
A week later, Carolina beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish the season 15–1. The Panthers rolled through the playoffs and were more than a field goal point spread favorites over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50. However, they lost 24–10.