Blackjack When Should You Split

1. When Should You Split Eights In Blackjack
2. Blackjack Split Vs Double Down
3. In Blackjack Should You Split Aces

by Henry Tamburin

Aug 16, 2019  Should you Split 10s? If this is your first visit to the Blackjack Forum, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You will have to r e g i s t e r (free) before you can post: click the r e g i s t e r link to proceed. Re-splitting is a powerful tool when you play blackjack, especially where you can double after a split and where you have Surrender. It allows you to get maximum money in play against the dealer’s weak up card. If a house allows re-splitting but no double after a split, go somewhere else to play blackjack. Should you Split 10s? If this is your first visit to the Blackjack Forum, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You will have to r e g i s t e r (free) before you can post: click the r e g i s t e r link to proceed.

One of the more frustrating hands in blackjack is being dealt a 12 when the dealer shows a 2 upcard. You hate to hit your 12 because you are afraid the dealer is going to give you a picture card and you’ll bust. There’s a lot of misconception on what’s the correct way to play this hand and I aim to sort it all out so it will no longer be a “dilemma” for you.
First off, let’s look at some facts about this hand.

• Many players don’t hit 12 because they believe the dealer has a ten in the hole and, therefore, they won’t risk busting when the dealer has a weak upcard. However, when you hold a 12, only four cards will bust you ... any 10, Jack, Queen, and King, meaning you have a 65% chance of surviving a hit. Five cards ... any 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 ... will give you a 17 through 21 hand.
• With a 2 upcard, the dealer has a 35% chance of busting and 65% chance of making a 17 though 21.
• If you stand, you’ll win 35% of the time and lose 65% of the time.
• If you hit, you’ll win 37% of the time and lose 63% of the time.

So what does all of the above mean? First, when the dealer has a 2 upcard, she’s not as venerable to busting as she would with, say, a 4, 5, or 6 upcard. Secondly, your chance of busting isn’t as great as you think. Therefore, it appears that hitting the 12 would be the better play than standing and this is corroborated by facts # 3 and #4. Let’s look at this in a little more detail.
Fact # 3 says you will win 35% of the time standing on 12 against a dealer 2 and lose 65% of the time. This means if you bet a dollar a hand, you would be down $30 after 100 hands on average. That certainly isn’t a good outcome but that’s a fact: standing on 12 when the dealer shows a 2 is not a profitable play and you will lose more money than you win in the long run. However, let’s look at the second option, namely hitting 12. Fact #4 says you will win 2% more times compared to standing. In dollars and cents, this means you will lose $26 after 100 hands on average. That’s also a loser but here’s the question you must ask yourself: is it better to lose $26 or $30? I hope that I’ve convinced you that even though hitting 12 against a 2 is a loser, you will lose less money in the long run compared to standing. In other word, this is classic hand where the best playing option allows you to minimize your losses.
What if your 12 consists of a pair of 6s? Now you’ve got another option and that’s to split the 6s and play two hands against the dealer’s 2 upcard. It turns out that when you split and play a 6 against a dealer 2, you will win roughly 43% of the time. In other words, you’ve increased your chances of winning when you split the 6’s against a dealer 2 compared to hitting. To say it differently, starting with a 6 is a whole lot better than starting with a 12 when you are facing a dealer’s 2 upcard. Therefore, the correct strategy is to always split a pair of 6s against a dealer 2 upcard (with one exception: if you’re playing a four-, six-, or eight-deck game where you can’t double down after pair splitting, you should hit 6’s against a 2).
You could also be dealt a soft 12, which happens to be Ace-Ace. This hand should be a no brainer. You should always split a pair of aces regardless of what the dealer’s upcard is.
Is there ever a situation when you wouldn’t hit a non-pair 12 hand against a dealer’s 2? Actually two cases come to mind. The first is when the remaining cards contain an abundance of high-value vs. small-value cards (thus increasing your chance of busting if you hit 12). In fact, card counters will sometimes stand on 12 whenever their count gets moderately positive (indicating more high cards than small cards remain in the unplayed deck of cards). So, the next time you see a fellow player standing on 12 against a dealer 2, think twice about calling him a nerd because he might just be a skilled card counter making the correct play.
The second situation which justifies deviating from hitting 12 against a dealer 2 comes about in tournament play. If the tournament rules specify that the double-down card is dealt face down, instead of hitting your 12 you could double down for just one chip (i.e., doubling for less). This move, although it involves some risk of busting, allows you to disguise the outcome of your hand from your opponents who must play their hands after you. This is a powerful strategy especially when it’s used on the last few hands of a closely contested tournament.
So now you know how to play a 12 against a dealer’s 2 under all types of situations; therefore, this hand should no longer be a dilemma for you, right?

As we've already explained in the introductory articles, when you are dealt a pair or two 10 cards, regardless of their face, you have the opportunity to split the hand into two separate ones and each of the new hands is played like an ordinary one. There are, of course, rule variations that for example limit the number of resplits or do not permit the resplitting of aces, but in general, they are played like an ordinary hand.

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As with every other scenario in basic strategy, the decision of whether to split a certain pair or not depends on the pair itself and its relevance to the dealer's up-card.

Don't split 10s

Splitting a 10-10 hand defies all logic unless you are a card counter. Thus, for the employers of basic strategy, you should never ruin a near-perfect hand. Simple math calculations show what a minimal chance the dealer has of getting a blackjack or a multiple-card 21 against your 10 -10.

Card counters tend to split 10s once they have identified a situation in which splitting their hand gives them a further advantage in the game. If you are not counting cards, you have no reason to split 10s.

Splitting 9s

According to basic strategy, you should split 9s against every numeric card a dealer holds, except for a 7. The reason is that if the dealer holds a seven, he stands a great chance of holding a 10 hole card and will stand on his hard 17, thus your 9-9 will win.

Even if the dealer's hole card is not 10, he stands a significant chance of getting a stiff hand (with 9, 8, 7, 6, 5), presenting a high probability of going bust.

Splitting your 9s against the dealer's 9 is a good choice because your 18 can easily be beaten by a 10 hole card.

Splitting 8s

Splitting 8s is kinda tricky, but it is the right choice for this hand. An 8-8 is the toughest stiff hand to play since, all else equal, it faces the largest number of cards that would bust it. However, hitting an 8 is much easier and has a decent chance of even turning into a great hand.

Thus, by splitting 8-8 you significantly boost your chance and will ultimately lose less money. An 8-8 hand itself is very likely a loser in case the dealer doesn't have a stiff hand and goes bust.

However, if you split and draw a 10-card, or even a 9, you stand a much greater chance of a push or even beating a dealer's 17. Moreover, if you draw a low card, such as an Ace, 2 or 3, you can hit again and get a 19-20. If only one of your two hands develops like described, you will break out of this bad hand at breakeven, a great outcome from a hard 16.

Splitting 7s and 6s

Splitting 7s and 6s is done against a dealer's up-card of 2 through 7 for a number of reasons. First, 7s and 6s are terrible starting hands (stiff) where you can easily get busted upon hitting. Meanwhile, if the dealer holds a 2 through 7, he stands an increased chance of getting a stiff hand. Thus, it would be wise to try your luck with a better hand, thus split, while also hoping for a dealer's stiff.

Don't split 5s

Splitting 5s, just as splitting 10s, should be avoided unless you are a card counter. A 5-5 hand presents a good opportunity to double down as you stand a great chance of getting a high-range hand (18-21).

Meanwhile, if you split the 5s, you will be left with two hands that can easily become stiff (all 10s, all 9s, all 8s and all 7s will make a stiff hand). Also, the opportunity for those two hands to be doubled down will require another 5 or a 6 (for a total value of 10-11), and two 5s have already been drawn out of the deck.

When Should You Split Eights In Blackjack

Splitting 4s is trickier

Blackjack Split Vs Double Down

Splitting a 4-4 hand generally depends on whether doubling down after splitting is allowed. In a game with DAS, you should split 4s against the dealer's up-card of 4, 5 or 6. If after splitting you hit a 5, 6, 7 or an Ace, you are presented with a good opportunity to double down while the dealer is very likely to get a stiff hand. However, if double down after split is not permitted, a 4-4 hand should not be split since a starting hand of 8 is better than two starting hands of 4.

Splitting 2s and 3s

In Blackjack Should You Split Aces

If double down after split is allowed, 2-2 and 3-3 hands are split against a dealer's up-card of 2 through 7. There are a few reasons for that. First, hitting a 2 or a 3 provides a good chance of receiving a hand to double down against the dealer's weak up-card. Second, a pair of 2s or 3s make for a terrible starting hand since hitting a 10 (or a 9 for 3s) will get you a stiff hand. Third, with an up-card of 2 through 7, the dealer stands a good chance of getting a stiff hand as well.